Every homeowner planning ahead wants a clear forecast. The honest, evidence-based answer for Tbilisi over 2026–2028 is: modest, steady increases are the most likely path, but not a return to the sharp spikes of 2022–2023.

What the data shows right now

Rents have already largely stabilized. Galt & Taggart’s monitoring shows average rent for a standard 50–60 sqm apartment holding in a tight $9.8–10.1 per sqm range from 2024 through early 2026 — a period of genuine plateau after the extraordinary 2022–2023 surge driven by regional migration. Geostat’s consumer price index data confirms this from another angle: the housing rental component grew only about 1.9% year-on-year as of March 2026, notably below the 4.3% growth in the overall consumer price index. Rent, in other words, is currently rising slower than the general cost of living.

Why a modest upward drift is the more likely path

• Sales-side price growth is expected to continue, if slowly. TBC Capital forecasts around 3.2% average property price growth for Tbilisi in 2026, and Galt & Taggart expects demand to stay broadly in line with 2025, with single-digit price growth continuing. Rents typically follow sale prices with a lag, so continued (if modest) price appreciation tends to eventually pull rents up as well.
• Economic fundamentals remain solid. Georgia posted GDP growth of 7.5% in 2025, among the strongest in the region, with growth expected to moderate to a still-healthy 5–5.5% in 2026 according to ADB and World Bank projections. Fitch and S&P both affirmed Georgia’s sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook in late 2025 and early 2026, reinforcing a broadly positive macro backdrop.
• Structural demand drivers persist. Urbanization, declining average household size, and Tbilisi’s concentration of the country’s economic activity all continue to support underlying housing demand over a multi-year horizon.

Why a sharp jump is unlikely

• Elevated construction pipeline. Permit issuance, while down slightly year-on-year in 2025, remained roughly 32% above the 2015–2022 “healthy” average, according to Galt & Taggart meaning meaningful new supply keeps entering the market and competing for tenants, which naturally caps how fast rents can rise.
• High pre-sale rates via installment plans. With 94–98% of units in recently completed projects already sold — largely through developer financing a portion of what would otherwise be rental demand is being absorbed into ownership instead, tempering pressure on rents.
• No repeat of the 2022 migration shock expected. The extraordinary demand surge of 2022–2023 was driven by a specific, large-scale geopolitical event; barring a similar shock, rent growth is far more likely to track normal economic and demographic trends than repeat that spike.

The takeaway

Plan for gradual, single-digit rent growth over the next two to three years rather than a dramatic move in either direction. It’s a healthy, sustainable trajectory for owners steady enough to support long-term planning, without the volatility that made 2022–2023 so hard to forecast around.

Data referenced: Galt & Taggart rent and construction permit data (2025–2026); Geostat CPI housing component; TBC Capital 2026 price forecast; ADB/World Bank GDP projections; Fitch and S&P sovereign rating actions (Nov 2025, Feb 2026).